How to Earn Kudos in Chaos?

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Sense and Cash Exploitable, Novel, Apt and Roaring Income Opportunities Signs

The ability to predict the future has been humanity’s eternal quest. Notwithstanding the vast progress of science that has blown off many myths and methods of soothsayers such as astrologists, numerologists and fortune tellers, they continue to have a vast following. Most journals carry weekly and daily columns on forecasts by zodiac signs and claim high readership.

Then there are many ‘scientific’ analytical processes and software products to help corporate executives and other professionals to forecast trends business planning. Consultants offering such products and services have enormous data banks and intricate processes built by spending billions of dollars over the years. They also have talented experts.

And yet, Philip Tetlock, in his bestseller book ‘Superforecasting’ written after 20 years of field research, claims: “we now know a few hundred ordinary people and some simple math can not only compete with professionals supported by a multibillion-dollar apparatus but beat them’. And what’s more ‘ordinary people who could – without the assistance of any algorithmic magic - beat the IC (Intelligence Community)”. John Horgan of Stevens Institute of Technology commenting on the book says that, “Tetlock is renowned for demonstrating that most experts are no better than dart-throwing monkeys at predicting………."

In view of the above, Eric Hoffer’s statement that, “The only way to predict the future is to have the power to shape it” makes practical sense. And, how does one get that power? Eric stresses the importance of “inner dialogue”. He says that, “The remarkable thing is that the cessation of the inner dialogue marks also the end of our concern with the world around us.”

Scenarioizing Helps Foresee Boom in Gloom

The Merriam Webster dictionary defines a scenario as ‘an outline or synopsis of a play, especially a plot outline used by actors of the commedia dell’arte, or a screenplay sequence of events especially when imagined, an account or synopsis of possible course of action or events’.

The business environment has been changing so fast that ‘reality is jumping ahead of fantasy’. There is an acute need to anticipate change and to prepare for, what the dictionary definition of scenario specifies – ‘an account or synopsis of possible course of action or events’.

Tools and concepts developed during stable conditions, punctuated by occasional disruptions, are of little use to resolve the current calamitous crisis. The havoc created by the Coronavirus pandemic combined with the intricacies of new technological developments like AI, VR, AR, 3D and Metaverse have made chaos a new normal. You have to have quick metamorphosing tools, blending dry data with intuitive impulses born of what Hoffer calls “inner dialogue”’ to deal with sudden strange situations. And, scenarioizing is that tool. 

Unlike other analytical, number-crunching tools, scenarioizing enables one to gain rare insights to deal with uncertainties to minimize risks. The flexibility and versatility of scenarioizing alerts one to the need for action instantly when one comprehends the signals of even slight changes in interconnected and correlated factors. The examples of corporate experiences, given below, illustrate this dramatic superiority of scenarioizing.

To respond instantly and correctly to such signals, a scenarioist requires a very high level of curiosity, creative “inner dialogue”, wide knowledge of various disciplines, alertness to new ideas aired in various symposia and conferences as well as papers in journals and interest in imaginative pieces of art and literature. The scenarioist must be hyperactive and an experimenter to break and make numerous combinations till practical utility is achieved. S/he must be a change master looking to improve utility as well as solve problems.  The knack to see opportunity in adversity is a special attribute and calls for a high level of empathy towards people and society.

There are numerous guides for scenarioizing, including software. But constant vigilance and alertness for change-signals, an acute, exploring mindset and an unquenching quest and imagination to correlate and interrelate numerous factors is the sine-qua-non. The established business planning process is heavily reliant on figure crunching and is relatively rigid. Scenarioizing is flexible - there are indicators and signals to be watched and actions/counter actions to be put in place. There are several (a simple model can be pessimistic, optimistic, realistic) scenarios in place and the company is ready with an action plan, no matter which scenario plays out without notice. 

Shell’s Pioneering Initiative  

Shell plc has been actively pursuing the scenarioizing process for over 40 years. The 1973 oil crisis and the resultant havoc created by the hike in oil prices ‘shell-shocked’ the whole world but not Shell plc. They were anticipating the crisis based on a scenario that was in place. Later, the Iran- Iraq war scenario, prepared much in advance, helped Shell make financial gains.

Shell has since expanded the scenarioizing process to political, social and environmental fields and their recommendations are followed by corporations and governments too.

Fiction/R&D Paper to Reality

There have all along been a number of works of fiction and films which have, very vividly, depicted future products, processes, services and social changes. Millions read/saw these, got superb entertainment and joy but ‘callously’ dismissed these ideas as ‘crazy’ stuff and forgot about them. But, years and in some cases decades/centuries later, a ‘crazy’ fellow got a ‘vision’ of similar business ideas, either directly or independently. S/he created scenarios. That went viral and created a ‘craze’ among the people and led to a sprawling business enterprise or a new dramatic achievement.

We are drawing on some of such ideas from our past blogs to serve as shining examples. 

The most illustrious and dramatic example is Jules Verne's sci-fi novel about landing men on the Moon, titled  "From the Earth to the Moon". It was published in 1865. And NASA actually did it in 1969! Now, consider the amazing similarities in Jules Verne's novel and the elements of NASA's mission: Verne's Cannon (spaceship) was named 'Columbiad', NASA's was called 'Columbia'. Both spaceships had a crew of three persons. Even the physical dimensions of both projectiles were close. Both were blasted off from Florida and the crew in both were recovered by the US Navy from the Pacific. It is worthwhile noting here that the author was a Frenchman. 

Humanity has been undergoing horrific sufferings for so long because of the evil of air pollution. Just recently, the Paris treaty drew an agreement for “Zero Carbon” by 2050. Many are struggling to catch up with their sustainability goals. And now, a sudden awakening has arisen that ‘fuel cells’ are the answer for the crisis. Lo and behold! Sir William Grove invented the first fuel cell in 1838! Francis Thomas Bacon established the first commercial use of hydrogen-oxygen fuel cells in 1932, almost a century later. And now, after yet another century, fuel cells are a fast moving product!

 

There are more sci-fi stories that have become realities. 'Machine Learning'  was the theme of Samuel Butler's novel published in 1872. Mary Bradley's story "Mizora" (1880) talked about lab-grown meat. In a decades-old Marathi story, the protagonist, Pandu Tatya, was always busy experimenting in search of new things. Once a friend asked him, “What are you discovering now?” Tatya said, "How very stupid to grow white cotton in the fields and then labour to dye yarn. Why not grow multi-coloured cotton in the field itself?” And, according to recent reports this has been turned into reality now by agri-scientists.

 

From Reel to Real

Some sci-fi films too included scenarios depicting many technological devices that became realities. Here is a short list:

• Metropolis, 1927---- Robots

• Star Trek, 1966  ---- Mobile Phones

• Blade Runner, 1982--- Flying cars 

• Total Recall, 1990---- Self-driving cars

 

Unleash All-round Wizardry

 

How very sad that millions of people, including business persons, saw these films but till recently it did not occur to anyone that these film scenarios contained ideas for fantastic business plans.

 

It is heartening that such a near-omnipotent, in fact wizardly, tool like scenarioizing is now widely adapted in business firms and some universities and business schools too offer the subject as an optional one. The fastest way to boost the study, improvement and use of scenarioizing is to introduce it in schools. Children have all along been fantasizing and scenarioizing as they have no inhibitions.

Wizards of the World

Scenarioizing is Wizardly

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